WW analysis - Pre plans

[Jono]

Since we had a fail one I thought I should do one instead.

The SEC

First of all, what does "SEC" stand for? This is extremely imperative as the name will determine the outcome of their efforts.

They've got 3 WWs - all in different areas of the server. One in the center: which NATO almost cleared and chiefed earlier today, one out around the NE/NW border, and one in the boonies of the SE. The main task for these guys to overcome is going to be getting plans. If they can coordinate and do that: then they will have surprised a lot of us.

If they DO get plans, they are going to have a hell of a time trying to keep their WW intact. Judging by the different alliances involved, they won't consolidate to 1 WW. I would expect at most 2 mil defense in any of their WWs - and that's really generous. 1 mil each is more realistic.

For them to win, they will need to get lucky. Like IMP r2, they need to act beat, walk with a limp, and then surprise everyone by having enough GW space to complete level 98.

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FATE

They have 1 WW on the Karma account. Will obviously have a ton of defense and a ton of hammers, one of the really formidable alliances entering this race. The small alliances across travian seem to be sensing something, since they are reportedly flocking into the FATE WW en masse without any bidding. Like Noah's ark!

FATE will very easily get plans. I'm also expecting them to do most of the damage to some of the smaller WW holders, since they have a large capacity of secondary hammers that wouldn't do a lot to stronger WWs.

FATE really has the best shot at winning the server because of competition between SYN and NATO. I'm sure that if it came down to FATE or one of those two winning, the other would proceed to take them out.

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SYN

Has 3 WW. Should be expected to have a decent amount of defense and hammers, at least enough to pose a threat in the WW race.

If SYN tries to spread out all their defense into three WW, they are going to be pretty thin. Almost anything will take out a GW or two, but the overall damage could be less due to multiple targets. If SYN eventually consolidates into 1 WW they will have a lot more defense, but (naturally) will take hard hits a lot..harder!

SYN also recently confeded with WB*H. Their leader has hinted that this confed was planned for a while, similar to the formation of SYN. It will be interesting to see if SYN adds on any new allies to the mix..

For SYN to win, they will need NATO to play for the win. If the server comes to a point where NATO is pretty far out and SYN and FATE are racing for 1st, we'll have to see if NATO kills SYN or hits both evenly in an attempt to get back into the race.

WGF

Once again, WGF has a WW! A lot of their armies are, quite frankly, some of the biggest in the server I have seen. I'm not sure what kind of defense they will put up, being solo.

I would expect WGF to support another alliance in the near future, especially if they get 1 plan or less.

WGF has a very nice advantage of being underestimated, which could definitely give them a shot at the win. Round 3 they almost did it, but my dual took their WW from 95 to 0. Who knows what will happen this time..

NATO

The reigning champs are back, with a WW right by HomeWrecker. Expect defenses well over 10 million and at least 30 WW hammers.

NATO's biggest challenge will be that there are several players with large hammers that do not want them to win. They won't receive the "majority" of the attacks, perse, but they will certainly get enough.

For NATO to win, they will basically need a lot of attacks to go to other alliances besides themselves. As in previous rounds, they need the other alliances to run out of hammers killing each other and then realize that NATO is there too late.

Also, curiously, NATO allied with TNT. MM's have gone out in SR to work out an NAP with NATO players and hit SYN players, for whatever reason.

SWC

The most mysterious alliance in the equation. I don't think anybody knows exactly how much defense SWC has, or how many hammers they have. If I had to guess, I'd say a 15 mil defense by WW and around a dozen sizable hammers. They probably have the second best shot at the win, next to FATE, since nobody really expects it from them.

It will be interesting to see if they decide to work with another alliance.

GODS

In my last analysis, I stated that GODS needs to "stop sucking" in order to do well. Well, seems that they have, after some initial hard internal hits FATE pulled on top members.

They definitely have more balls than anyone of the other alliance, hitting other alliances in two separate quads. I think their hammers will be more of a factor than anything else, considering that FATE really isn't going to let them win. However, much grats to them for being the top "new" alliance of the round.

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If I had to make a prediction:

1. FATE, probably having no GWs left but getting level 100 on the que just in time.
2. SWC, finishing behind FATE but with enough infrastructure to carry through if FATE wasn't there.
3. NATO, losing all of their infrastructure somewhere in the 90s.
4. SYN, losing all of their Great Granaries and failing to get it out of a croplock somewhere in the 90s. A hundred SYN hammers will never launch, but they were all over 1 million wheat.
5. WGF, someone will come along and put their WW at zero last second.
6. GODS, will get plans but FATE will steal them or insist on completely zeroing their WW
7. SEC, won't get plans and get started. If they do, probably same as WGF


~Jono

[killerkane]

Wow, compared to this, the other one was a fail!! Good job. =)

[killerkane]

I scouted Serenitys WW a few hours ago and I didnt see to many troops, barely any Teut defenders really and I lost 1 scout. haha.

[Guntherz]

Nice Jono! a very interesting thread.

[JD70]

The only fault I have with this analysis... NATO is not the reigning champ.
They are only an alliance within a confederation of the reigning champs.
They cannot do it alone. They let other alliances do the work and they try to take the glory.

They simmed last round while CSR and OWNED did all the dirty work in the NE last round.
The round before they simmed in the bloody SW and switched sides in the middle of the round when they knew that the side they were on was losing.

All NATO does is sim and let other people do all the work and then they come in and claim victory.
Yes, NATO won the last two rounds. But it is tainted.

NATO/BFP/HORDE/EDGE/PYN won Round 3 (BFP/Horde was the main fighting force all round.)
NATO/CSR/OWNED won Round 4 (CSR and OWNED was the main fighting force that round.)

NATO rides on the backs of other alliances. They can not do it alone.

[killerkane]

Well this round we see that NATO has lost alot of its ranks and the best it can get is TnT, I was with them at the beggining and left when I was told all members must move to the TnT base out in the boonies. They've not had very big battles, though I must say Homewrecker has done well and so have alot of NATO's other guys and girls.

[scarear]

Makes the other one look silly. But pretty much right on.

[Jono]

Originally Posted by JD70 The only fault I have with this analysis... NATO is not the reigning champ. They are only an alliance within a confederation of the reigning champs. They cannot do it alone. They let other alliances do the work and they try to take the glory. They simmed last round while CSR and OWNED did all the dirty work in the NE last round. The round before they simmed in the bloody SW and switched sides in the middle of the round when they knew that the side they were on was losing. All NATO does is sim and let other people do all the work and then they come in and claim victory. Yes, NATO won the last two rounds. But it is tainted. NATO/BFP/HORDE/EDGE/PYN won Round 3 (BFP/Horde was the main fighting force all round.) NATO/CSR/OWNED won Round 4 (CSR and OWNED was the main fighting force that round.) NATO rides on the backs of other alliances. They can not do it alone.

R3 I definitely agree, but R4 OWNED didn't really do anything at all. CSR did a little fighting, but it was mostly simming all around.

~Jono

[LoLCatz]

Originally Posted by JD70 The only fault I have with this analysis... NATO is not the reigning champ. They are only an alliance within a confederation of the reigning champs. They cannot do it alone. They let other alliances do the work and they try to take the glory. They simmed last round while CSR and OWNED did all the dirty work in the NE last round. The round before they simmed in the bloody SW and switched sides in the middle of the round when they knew that the side they were on was losing. All NATO does is sim and let other people do all the work and then they come in and claim victory. Yes, NATO won the last two rounds. But it is tainted. NATO/BFP/HORDE/EDGE/PYN won Round 3 (BFP/Horde was the main fighting force all round.) NATO/CSR/OWNED won Round 4 (CSR and OWNED was the main fighting force that round.) NATO rides on the backs of other alliances. They can not do it alone.

NATO is weak and lacks leadership. I'd imagine their defenses in the WW turn out to be similar to the first time they "won." Which was 3M at best. They don't have their META to support them. No way they win this round. My money is on SYN. They've got the huge collection of people this round, and people will have to focus on three separate WW targets to take out to prevent them from winning. SYN should cruise this round if they build smartly.

[Jono]

Originally Posted by LoLCatz NATO is weak and lacks leadership. I'd imagine their defenses in the WW turn out to be similar to the first time they "won." Which was 3M at best. They don't have their META to support them. No way they win this round. My money is on SYN. They've got the huge collection of people this round, and people will have to focus on three separate WW targets to take out to prevent them from winning. SYN should cruise this round if they build smartly.

Your just jealous that you aren't in it anymore