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Thread: Valy's Mafia 47 or something Round Game Thread

  1. #241
    Consul The Burninator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luisss View Post
    Any suggestions on how we can play better next time? Moments of the game that cost us the win, etc?
    We got lucky this game. It's hard to have neither mafia be suspect at the end of the game. But:

    1) Rok went after me with awful logic. Whenever you go after someone with awful logic and they survive the KP, it makes it tough for the next person who tries to lynch them. (See: Flossie.) Anyway, if Rok had gotten me that night either by winning one more vote or by winning that 50/50, it would have been a whole different game.
    2) Luisss went after mb (or someone?) with even worse logic, which allowed us to lynch him almost unanimously on account of the fail logic. When it's pointed out that your logic only netted you a 2% better than random guess chance of being right -- and in this case it happened to be wrong -- you should concede immediately and ask what the counter suggestion is. Sticking to your guns is only worthwhile when your logic is sound, and in this case, it was a serious misplay. That got me and Eric another free lynch without making either of us suspect.
    3) We got lucky again because Flossie and SC were busy with the Finals Tourney or somesuch, and so Flossie didn't have time to come on here and argue her case, and SC didn't have time to come catch me.
    4) I had stokem convinced that the mafia team was me and Luisss, and he thought he could turn right around and get me lynched if he had to after the correct lynch on Luisss. Unfortunately for him, Luisss was incorrect and I could kill him that night.

    So that explains why I was able to hoodwink/get around mbstokem, SC, and Flossie, and how Rok and Luisss helped me do that by going after people without cause.

    Finally, Eric played a good round, keeping suspicion off himself and flying below the radar until the very end. Blazin' just needs to work on his scumhuntin' skills -- just gotta get better at figuring out who's mafia.

    Kerzi and Carni -- I had to kill early because they're too much wildcard for my strategies. Carni has tripped me up multiple past games, so I had to get rid of that possibility. Kerzi, too, I've noticed being exceptionally devious, and I didn't want anything throwing a wrench in at the end. So that's why I removed those two from the game off the bat.
    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Rasputin View Post
    Your idea of outing the detective and making the doctor protect was actually a good idea ... Unfortunately, Mafia killed off the doctor in that KP
    This is actually not a good idea. Because as soon as the doctor dies, the detective dies the next night. Furthermore, it changes the % chance of a successful doctor block to 0%.
    Last edited by The Burninator; 11-20-2016 at 04:00 PM.

  2. #242
    Artisan Eric Rasputin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    We got lucky this game. It's hard to have neither mafia be suspect at the end of the game. But:

    1) Rok went after me with awful logic. Whenever you go after someone with awful logic and they survive the KP, it makes it tough for the next person who tries to lynch them. (See: Flossie.) Anyway, if Rok had gotten me that night either by winning one more vote or by winning that 50/50, it would have been a whole different game.
    2) Luisss went after mb (or someone?) with even worse logic, which allowed us to lynch him almost unanimously on account of the fail logic. When it's pointed out that your logic only netted you a 2% better than random guess chance of being right -- and in this case it happened to be wrong -- you should concede immediately and ask what the counter suggestion is. Sticking to your guns is only worthwhile when your logic is sound, and in this case, it was a serious misplay. That got me and Eric another free lynch without making either of us suspect.
    3) We got lucky again because Flossie and SC were busy with the Finals Tourney or somesuch, and so Flossie didn't have time to come on here and argue her case, and SC didn't have time to come catch me.
    4) I had stokem convinced that the mafia team was me and Luisss, and he thought he could turn right around and get me lynched if he had to after the correct lynch on Luisss. Unfortunately for him, Luisss was incorrect and I could kill him that night.

    So that explains why I was able to hoodwink/get around mbstokem, SC, and Flossie, and how Rok and Luisss helped me do that by going after people without cause.

    Finally, Eric played a good round, keeping suspicion off himself and flying below the radar until the very end. Blazin' just needs to work on his scumhuntin' skills -- just gotta get better at figuring out who's mafia.

    Kerzi and Carni -- I had to kill early because they're too much wildcard for my strategies. Carni has tripped me up multiple past games, so I had to get rid of that possibility. Kerzi, too, I've noticed being exceptionally devious, and I didn't want anything throwing a wrench in at the end. So that's why I removed those two from the game off the bat.

    This is actually not a good idea. Because as soon as the doctor dies, the detective dies the next night. Furthermore, it changes the % chance of a successful doctor block to 0%.
    I stand corrected.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ms. Evil View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Blazin1 View Post
    Aw, you shouldn't have.
    Don't you have a hole to die in?

  3. #243

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    Quote Originally Posted by Luisss View Post
    Your false dichotomy made no sense, hence why I ignored it. My "deflection about the detective" was me saying what I thought the best path to victory was, meanwhile you shared nothing. You're right though, you shouldn have listened to your original thought and voted differently.

    I mean...

    I A) suggest we apply pressure to people to get them posting and for mafia to potentially slip up.

    B) Suggest detective role claim (even though there didnt end up being another) so we could protect them and lynch appropriately.

    Meanwhile you:

    A) Accused me of endangering power roles and accused me of being mafia with zero substance.

    You play differently each round, fine, but hopefully you dont play like this next round, too.
    It wasn't a false dichotomy. I used YOUR thoughts on being the last VT to show why YOUR claim of it was terrible. Either you were the VT and risked the power roles since you thought you were the only no power left in the game or you were lying and therefore had to be a doctor or mafia since you couldn't be the detective. And since I was the doctor and I knew we were in the 2-1-1-7 scenario I knew if you claimed doctor you were mafia. However, you didn't claim either or even try to defend yourself. You instead tried to argue the detective claim which wasn't even a point I was making in the whole scenario. So keep blaming me for your unwillingness to be useful if it makes you feel better.
    Quote Originally Posted by mbstokem View Post
    o ya. i hope he goes back to it. i liked my name being in some1's sig

  4. #244
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    Quote Originally Posted by mbstokem View Post
    It wasn't a false dichotomy. I used YOUR thoughts on being the last VT to show why YOUR claim of it was terrible. Either you were the VT and risked the power roles since you thought you were the only no power left in the game or you were lying and therefore had to be a doctor or mafia since you couldn't be the detective.
    ^ There are times roleclaiming is bad.

  5. #245

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    @Luisss, it doesn't matter what you think you are saying....it only matters how your audience is perceiving it.

    Honestly I thought you could well be mafia or possible a power role trying to deflect attention.

    @Burnie.....are you implying I am easily manipulated?

    @Eric, well played, I did't suspect you until the last day when it was too late.
    Note:Any posts made by this poster should always be construed in the most innocent angelic way possible. The poster is not responsible for where your depraved minds go, if you have a depraved mind.

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  6. #246
    Consul The Burninator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flossie Schmumpus View Post
    @Burnie.....are you implying I am easily manipulated?
    No, why? (wondering what part of my analysis implied this.) You were the one who had me caught at the end, after all.

  7. #247
    Consul Rokchick's Avatar
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    OK, I'm going to dispute your analysis on me, and on Luiss as well (!). After I was killed, his posts made more sense than yours! I was absolutely right about the mafia train at the beginning and if there is only one night of a detectives vote, you take what you get, and use it if there's nothing else to go on. At least that's what all the calcy geeks say anyway. Voting patterns do matter if you have nothing else. We should have killed you early just because of the night one shenanigans. If anyone else had bothered to look they would have done it. I suspect SC would have. If I had got on earlier before N1 closed, I may have been able to do it then, or if not, made it much more obvious what had happened.

    I made a mistake with Eric and the suspects list right at the beginning, because he changed his vote off Burn to divert the train. I thought it was SC.

    Blazin was a complete distraction again, and I'm seriously going to vote him off by default unless he starts making sense. That makes 4 in a row where he's done more harm than good as town.

    But the reality is that Burn drove the discussion hard again, and won. And Eric played randomly (seemingly) again and won. So they did a great scum job.

    If there is one thing I would say, it is that without some of the old timers, there was very little notice taken of how the lynched and killed had voted. It's not enough to outweigh real evidence, but we didn't have any of that, so voting patterns should count. They used to....

    Edit: Actually Blazin did make one useful point early on, now that I go back and read them. Maybe not yet auto kill target.
    I'm glad I'm not judgemental like all you smug, superficial idiots

  8. #248
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rokchick View Post
    OK, I'm going to dispute your analysis on me, and on Luiss as well (!). After I was killed, his posts made more sense than yours!
    Absolutely not. Why do you think SC voted with us rather than with him?

    As I keep saying, the Kerzi as detective thing raised the likelihood of the person Luisss was trying to kill by 2%. AND that person was town! So not only was the logic not good, it was incorrect in this case.

  9. #249
    Consul Rokchick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    Absolutely not. Why do you think SC voted with us rather than with him?

    As I keep saying, the Kerzi as detective thing raised the likelihood of the person Luisss was trying to kill by 2%. AND that person was town! So not only was the logic not good, it was incorrect in this case.
    The logic was good, in that we had nothing else (except against you). It was you arguing so hard against it that pinged my radar. You've done that before as mafia. Make a strong argument for a townie when it doesn't matter, or is too late. Being wrong doesn't make the argument invalid in hindsight.
    I'm glad I'm not judgemental like all you smug, superficial idiots

  10. #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rokchick View Post
    The logic was good, in that we had nothing else (except against you). You've done that before as mafia. Make a strong argument for a townie when it doesn't matter, or is too late. Being wrong doesn't make the argument invalid in hindsight.
    Backwards -- Luisss was pressing to kill mbstokem, and his argument sucked. It was him that came off looking like mafia, not me. As mafia, I've done what Luisss did: tried to get someone lynched with a flimsy case. I have not pointed out a flimsy case and gone after the guy that made it. Why? Townies don't typically go after one another on no evidence, which is why I recommended immediately conceding when the math showed that the argument netted a 2% extra chance that the target is mafia. 2% is nothing.

    In other words, we didn't have anything better than that, until Luissss made his 2% case and stuck by it even when it was shown to be flimsy as hell.

    The way discussion went:
    Luisss: montana is more likely to be mafia because Kerzi
    Montana: Nuh uh that's dumb
    TB: I did the math and it's 2% more likely, Montana is right
    Luisss: I'll take 2% because I want it.
    TB/Montana/SC: why would you do that unless you're maff?

    The way I am suggesting:
    Luisss: Montana is more likely to be mafia because Kerzi
    Montana: Nuh uh that's dumb
    TB: I did the math and it's 2% more likely, montana is right
    Luisss: I see. Well then TB, you'd better come up with an alternative and come up with an argument for it.
    TB (is mafia) : I'm not really sure unfortunately
    Luisss: Kbro. /vote TB.
    ^^ Luisss's case at this point in the convo is MUCH stronger against me than it was against montana at the outset.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rokchick View Post
    It was you arguing so hard against it that pinged my radar.
    Didn't you die N2? You went in on me because I survived N1. That's such a bad reason that you lost the vote.

    Look, whether or not you think your argument was stronger, Rok, you lost the vote. Obviously other people didn't think your argument was better. (Also, it really wasn't.)

    Your argument WAS better than Luisss's, though, and did almost get me lynched. If you had won that 50/50, the game would have gone different. You and flossie win MVP for catching me. That said, the argument you gave wasn't very strong. Sometimes you gotta roleclaim detective -- falsely -- or just say "guys, trust me on this one..."

    If you're gonna go in on someone and give a reason, that reason has to stand up to basic scrutiny. If it doesn't and you keep pursuing it, people start to wonder why you're being so aggressive. The basic critique I gave of the way you and Luisss played was that you were aggressive without a good reason, which meant that I didn't even have to come up with reasons to get you people lynched. You provided them for me by, in your case, going in on me without cause, and in Luissss's, going in on Montana without cause.
    Last edited by The Burninator; 11-21-2016 at 02:08 AM.

  11. #251
    Consul Rokchick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post


    Didn't you die N2? You went in on me because I survived N1. That's such a bad reason that you lost the vote.

    Look, whether or not you think your argument was stronger, Rok, you lost the vote. Obviously other people didn't think your argument was better. (Also, it really wasn't.)

    Your argument WAS better than Luisss's, though, and did almost get me lynched. If you had won that 50/50, the game would have gone different. You and flossie win MVP for catching me. That said, the argument you gave wasn't very strong. Sometimes you gotta roleclaim detective -- falsely -- or just say "guys, trust me on this one..."

    If you're gonna go in on someone and give a reason, that reason has to stand up to basic scrutiny. If it doesn't and you keep pursuing it, people start to wonder why you're being so aggressive. The basic critique I gave of the way you and Luisss played was that you were aggressive without a good reason, which meant that I didn't even have to come up with reasons to get you people lynched. You provided them for me by, in your case, going in on me without cause, and in Luissss's, going in on Montana without cause.
    This is the part I'm disputing. My argument was a good one. It was actually the best all round. And I did die N2, but you kept pinging my radar with your arguments after that. They looked like distractions.

    This voting pattern discussion used to be a big part of games, but not so much lately. Perhaps that's why I'm defending Luisss so hard, I actually think it is more important than you do. When you have nothing to go on, you go on what you have. Train riding and swapping votes is a big maf play. It used to be almost the main part of the discussions (outside the convoluted stats which I miss more). Now that the geeks are gone, voting should really be discussed more. Your arguments are basically "you sound like scum, he sounds like town" type of thing. Nothing concrete at all, and entirely up for interpretation (as can clearly be seen by your win!). Maybe it's my small part of nerd, but I prefer SOME sort of analysis.

    Besides which, I'm pretty sure your math was wrong.
    Will check shortly.

    Edit: It was, I knew there was something I saw when you posted it.
    11 players, 2 killed night 1, which means 9 left. Kerzi knew one player was town (unless it was one of the dead) from the investigate and knew one that was the investigator (duh!). So although everyone else had a pool of 9, Kerzi had 2 less, not 1. A lot better than anyone else. Also, I just noticed that after first night Kerzi said "I agree with Rok" which someone should have picked up on. I would take that to mean that those I had as suspects were not the conf town either. Might have made for harder game for you .

    Having said that, OMG.. really, you all should have lynched Blazin as soon as Kerzi died. All your talk was really very distracting Burn, were you holding that in reserve? The sheriff is killed and no one except Luisss tried to follow her vote? Seriously, that is just bizarre.

    Actually did Kerzi get a conf town that wasn't dead? Do we know?
    Last edited by Rokchick; 11-21-2016 at 03:27 AM.
    I'm glad I'm not judgemental like all you smug, superficial idiots

  12. #252

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rokchick View Post
    This is the part I'm disputing. My argument was a good one. It was actually the best all round. And I did die N2, but you kept pinging my radar with your arguments after that. They looked like distractions.

    This voting pattern discussion used to be a big part of games, but not so much lately. Perhaps that's why I'm defending Luisss so hard, I actually think it is more important than you do. When you have nothing to go on, you go on what you have. Train riding and swapping votes is a big maf play. It used to be almost the main part of the discussions (outside the convoluted stats which I miss more). Now that the geeks are gone, voting should really be discussed more. Your arguments are basically "you sound like scum, he sounds like town" type of thing. Nothing concrete at all, and entirely up for interpretation (as can clearly be seen by your win!). Maybe it's my small part of nerd, but I prefer SOME sort of analysis.

    Besides which, I'm pretty sure your math was wrong.
    Will check shortly.

    Edit: It was, I knew there was something I saw when you posted it.
    11 players, 2 killed night 1, which means 9 left. Kerzi knew one player was town (unless it was one of the dead) from the investigate and knew one that was the investigator (duh!). So although everyone else had a pool of 9, Kerzi had 2 less, not 1. A lot better than anyone else. Also, I just noticed that after first night Kerzi said "I agree with Rok" which someone should have picked up on. I would take that to mean that those I had as suspects were not the conf town either. Might have made for harder game for you .

    Having said that, OMG.. really, you all should have lynched Blazin as soon as Kerzi died. All your talk was really very distracting Burn, were you holding that in reserve? The sheriff is killed and no one except Luisss tried to follow her vote? Seriously, that is just bizarre.

    Actually did Kerzi get a conf town that wasn't dead? Do we know?
    No actually your argument was stupid. Literally nothing can be gained from N1 trains. That's why typically you no lynch N1 unless the math holds out that you get lylo the same night. So when there IS a N1 lynch who votes for who is irrelevant since everyone is just trying to survive so there is always going to be a "train" or two N1. Swapping for who you want to die/live more isn't always indicative of being mafia. Kinda like last game where y'all lynched me for voting Floss to save myself. Then tried to vote Valy for saving himself. It's a dumb argument and you're dumb for thinking it was the best one.

    Luisss' argument was also dumb. You don't go with the detective vote just because they're the detective. You don't know who she investigated, you can infer from the way she presented the case against blazin that she didn't investigate him, so it was her guessing. Had we lynched blazin we most likely would've gunned for Luisss for the same reason we did that night. It also didn't help that his responses were completely useless when being prodded. Also, your math is wrong. Everyone had a pool of 8, dummy.
    Quote Originally Posted by mbstokem View Post
    o ya. i hope he goes back to it. i liked my name being in some1's sig

  13. #253

    Scarecrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rokchick View Post
    This voting pattern discussion used to be a big part of games, but not so much lately
    We should still keep it as part of our repertoire. Night 3 is when such discussions have some chance of fruition. Beforehand, not so much.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonothan Crane
    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

  14. #254
    Consul The Burninator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scarecrow View Post
    Night 3 is when such discussions have some chance of fruition. Beforehand, not so much.
    Ding ding ding!

    @ Rok, you didn't account for possibilities that Kerzi investigated dead players, which is overstating Kerzi's guesses. (I consider it VERY likely that Kerzi investigated Carni.)

  15. #255
    Consul Rokchick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    Ding ding ding!

    @ Rok, you didn't account for possibilities that Kerzi investigated dead players, which is overstating Kerzi's guesses. (I consider it VERY likely that Kerzi investigated Carni.)
    As I pointed out at the end of my post...

    Nonetheless, there was nothing else to go on. I've reread all the posts, and I'm sticking to it. Sure, N3 is when the patterns are best seen, but that doesn't mean N1 votes are irrelevant. As I clearly pointed out, it was a train on Burn which got derailed to a train on a townie. Since most people prefer a NL on N1 anyway, a single train is no biggie, and if it had deteriorated into an actual random pick vote, that would also be just fine. But since the ONLY way more than one person can know if it's on maf is them, it actually is significant. There are only 2 options. It's random (in which case it should be left to the dice) or it's not. In which case there is a MUCH higher chance that we will lynch town. The chance of a long train staying on maf N1 without any input from maf is slight. It would need inactive mafia. Most players will (and I think would have) diverted it to a NL or random.

    MB. See above. If it is to be a random lynch it HAS to be decided by dice, or it's not random, and you lynch town. And yes, you do go with the detective vote and posts if there is nothing else to go on. We literally had no leads. To me Burn and SC sounded scummy and to you Luiss did. See, no leads! In which case, it is better to go with the odds, and the detective even if they are light on. Damn, where are the geeks when you need them!
    I'm glad I'm not judgemental like all you smug, superficial idiots

  16. #256
    Artisan Eric Rasputin's Avatar
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    Gimme some constructive criticism ... It was my first time playing as Mafia ... How did I do ?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ms. Evil View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Blazin1 View Post
    Aw, you shouldn't have.
    Don't you have a hole to die in?

  17. #257

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    I had a good lead on Luisss playing bad. He was a much better option than blazin.
    Quote Originally Posted by mbstokem View Post
    o ya. i hope he goes back to it. i liked my name being in some1's sig

  18. #258

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Rasputin View Post
    Gimme some constructive criticism ... It was my first time playing as Mafia ... How did I do ?
    You were too quiet for you. I was shocked no one picked up on that. Overall though you did well.

  19. #259
    Artisan Eric Rasputin's Avatar
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    I was quiet ??? :O .. I think I was pretty active ... Not as much as stokem and luisss though ...
    Quote Originally Posted by Ms. Evil View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Blazin1 View Post
    Aw, you shouldn't have.
    Don't you have a hole to die in?

  20. #260
    Artisan Kerzi's Avatar
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    For the record: I investigated MB n1.

    He came up as innocent, obviously. Still could have been the Godfather, but the odds pointed to him being probable town.
    Leader of KoN (S5), TLDRDTX (S3), CIN and PaN (2016 tournie)
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  21. #261
    Consul Rokchick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Rasputin View Post
    Gimme some constructive criticism ... It was my first time playing as Mafia ... How did I do ?
    You did well. Partly because you usually play like mafia anyway so how to tell? :P
    You do need to work on not being so random when you are town though. Otherwise when you play reasonably we'll assume you are mafia,, and when not town, and lynch you anyway
    I'm glad I'm not judgemental like all you smug, superficial idiots

  22. #262
    Consul The Burninator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Rasputin View Post
    I was quiet ??? :O
    This is why the one time I asked you to do something it was "go post something"

    You did good overall though.

  23. #263

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    I picked up a town vibe overall from you Eric, which is surprising because you normally exude scum.

    Next time I think you're town, I'm policy lynching you. XD

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonothan Crane
    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

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